Iranian officials have repeatedly signaled that suspending IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 achieves many strategic objectives without formal NPT withdrawal, which requires three months’ notice and carries substantial diplomatic and economic costs. Parliamentary proposals to exit the treaty surfaced again in August 2026 amid U.S. pressure and earlier military exchanges, yet senior lawmakers and analysts describe these as leverage tactics rather than active policy, with no endorsement from the executive or Supreme National Security Council. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum further channels disputes into negotiations on enrichment limits and monitoring, while internal debates highlight religious, legal, and security constraints against full withdrawal. Trader consensus therefore assigns only an 8.9% chance of exit before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
9% probabilità
$393,496 Vol.
$393,496 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$393,496 Vol.
$393,496 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have repeatedly signaled that suspending IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 achieves many strategic objectives without formal NPT withdrawal, which requires three months’ notice and carries substantial diplomatic and economic costs. Parliamentary proposals to exit the treaty surfaced again in August 2026 amid U.S. pressure and earlier military exchanges, yet senior lawmakers and analysts describe these as leverage tactics rather than active policy, with no endorsement from the executive or Supreme National Security Council. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum further channels disputes into negotiations on enrichment limits and monitoring, while internal debates highlight religious, legal, and security constraints against full withdrawal. Trader consensus therefore assigns only an 8.9% chance of exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$393,496Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have repeatedly signaled that suspending IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 achieves many strategic objectives without formal NPT withdrawal, which requires three months’ notice and carries substantial diplomatic and economic costs. Parliamentary proposals to exit the treaty surfaced again in August 2026 amid U.S. pressure and earlier military exchanges, yet senior lawmakers and analysts describe these as leverage tactics rather than active policy, with no endorsement from the executive or Supreme National Security Council. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum further channels disputes into negotiations on enrichment limits and monitoring, while internal debates highlight religious, legal, and security constraints against full withdrawal. Trader consensus therefore assigns only an 8.9% chance of exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$393,496Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials have repeatedly signaled that suspending IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 achieves many strategic objectives without formal NPT withdrawal, which requires three months’ notice and carries substantial diplomatic and economic costs. Parliamentary proposals to exit the treaty surfaced again in August 2026 amid U.S. pressure and earlier military exchanges, yet senior lawmakers and analysts describe these as leverage tactics rather than active policy, with no endorsement from the executive or Supreme National Security Council. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum further channels disputes into negotiations on enrichment limits and monitoring, while internal debates highlight religious, legal, and security constraints against full withdrawal. Trader consensus therefore assigns only an 8.9% chance of exit before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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