Michigan voters have rejected automatic constitutional convention questions by wide margins in each of the prior three referendums under the 1963 Constitution, establishing a strong historical baseline that continues to shape trader expectations for the November 2026 ballot measure. The question appears automatically every 16 years, and with roughly three months remaining until the election, no broad organized campaign, sustained polling movement, or major institutional push has emerged to overcome entrenched voter preference for targeted amendments rather than a full rewrite. While isolated endorsements exist and the process would involve delegate elections followed by voter ratification of any new document, the absence of recent catalysts or shifts in public sentiment reinforces the market's high implied probability against approval. Late developments such as unexpected polling surges or high-profile endorsements could still narrow the gap, though structural and historical barriers make such changes unlikely.