**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 92.5% reflects the Trump administration's pivot toward sustained economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than military intervention in Cuba during 2026.** Intensified sanctions on GAESA-linked entities, fuel suppliers, and regime officials, combined with an oil blockade, have deepened Cuba's economic crisis and blackouts without prompting the mass unrest or reform concessions that might justify escalation. Earlier 2026 rhetoric about "taking Cuba" after the Venezuela operation and deployments such as the USS Nimitz have given way to stalled negotiations and explicit prioritization of non-kinetic measures amid the ongoing Iran conflict and pre-midterm constraints. Pentagon planning discussions and indictments of figures like Raúl Castro have not translated into action, with recent reporting confirming a sanctions-centric approach and limited appetite for ground forces or regime-change raids before year-end. Absent a major new trigger, these dynamics keep full-scale invasion probabilities low through December.