Recent FBI execution of search warrants, including seizure of former Representative Eric Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and a search of his Washington, D.C., residence, has intensified an ongoing federal criminal investigation tied to multiple sexual assault allegations first reported in April 2026. Parallel probes by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department remain active following Swalwell’s congressional resignation, yet no charges or arrest warrants have been issued as of mid-August. Such sexual misconduct inquiries typically require extended evidence review, witness interviews, and prosecutorial review before any arrest decision, consistent with historical timelines in comparable DOJ matters. Traders appear to weigh these procedural realities against the recent escalation when pricing the low likelihood of custody by September 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
22% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Sì
22% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants, including seizure of former Representative Eric Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and a search of his Washington, D.C., residence, has intensified an ongoing federal criminal investigation tied to multiple sexual assault allegations first reported in April 2026. Parallel probes by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department remain active following Swalwell’s congressional resignation, yet no charges or arrest warrants have been issued as of mid-August. Such sexual misconduct inquiries typically require extended evidence review, witness interviews, and prosecutorial review before any arrest decision, consistent with historical timelines in comparable DOJ matters. Traders appear to weigh these procedural realities against the recent escalation when pricing the low likelihood of custody by September 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$22Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants, including seizure of former Representative Eric Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and a search of his Washington, D.C., residence, has intensified an ongoing federal criminal investigation tied to multiple sexual assault allegations first reported in April 2026. Parallel probes by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department remain active following Swalwell’s congressional resignation, yet no charges or arrest warrants have been issued as of mid-August. Such sexual misconduct inquiries typically require extended evidence review, witness interviews, and prosecutorial review before any arrest decision, consistent with historical timelines in comparable DOJ matters. Traders appear to weigh these procedural realities against the recent escalation when pricing the low likelihood of custody by September 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent FBI execution of search warrants, including seizure of former Representative Eric Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and a search of his Washington, D.C., residence, has intensified an ongoing federal criminal investigation tied to multiple sexual assault allegations first reported in April 2026. Parallel probes by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department remain active following Swalwell’s congressional resignation, yet no charges or arrest warrants have been issued as of mid-August. Such sexual misconduct inquiries typically require extended evidence review, witness interviews, and prosecutorial review before any arrest decision, consistent with historical timelines in comparable DOJ matters. Traders appear to weigh these procedural realities against the recent escalation when pricing the low likelihood of custody by September 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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