The market-implied probability of 94.8% for no magnitude-10.0-or-higher earthquake before 2027 reflects the strong geophysical consensus that such events exceed the maximum credible magnitude supported by Earth's crustal mechanics and historical seismic records. United States Geological Survey data show the largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 in 1960, with subsequent global monitoring revealing no approach to 10.0 despite improved detection networks. Traders weigh this against the limited remaining timeframe, noting that even the most active subduction zones rarely produce events above 9.0. While sudden stress accumulation on major faults could theoretically alter outcomes, current USGS models and paleoseismic evidence indicate such thresholds remain highly improbable within the next 18 months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$602,797 Vol.
$602,797 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$602,797 Vol.
$602,797 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market-implied probability of 94.8% for no magnitude-10.0-or-higher earthquake before 2027 reflects the strong geophysical consensus that such events exceed the maximum credible magnitude supported by Earth's crustal mechanics and historical seismic records. United States Geological Survey data show the largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 in 1960, with subsequent global monitoring revealing no approach to 10.0 despite improved detection networks. Traders weigh this against the limited remaining timeframe, noting that even the most active subduction zones rarely produce events above 9.0. While sudden stress accumulation on major faults could theoretically alter outcomes, current USGS models and paleoseismic evidence indicate such thresholds remain highly improbable within the next 18 months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$602,797終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market-implied probability of 94.8% for no magnitude-10.0-or-higher earthquake before 2027 reflects the strong geophysical consensus that such events exceed the maximum credible magnitude supported by Earth's crustal mechanics and historical seismic records. United States Geological Survey data show the largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 in 1960, with subsequent global monitoring revealing no approach to 10.0 despite improved detection networks. Traders weigh this against the limited remaining timeframe, noting that even the most active subduction zones rarely produce events above 9.0. While sudden stress accumulation on major faults could theoretically alter outcomes, current USGS models and paleoseismic evidence indicate such thresholds remain highly improbable within the next 18 months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$602,797終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied probability of 94.8% for no magnitude-10.0-or-higher earthquake before 2027 reflects the strong geophysical consensus that such events exceed the maximum credible magnitude supported by Earth's crustal mechanics and historical seismic records. United States Geological Survey data show the largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 in 1960, with subsequent global monitoring revealing no approach to 10.0 despite improved detection networks. Traders weigh this against the limited remaining timeframe, noting that even the most active subduction zones rarely produce events above 9.0. While sudden stress accumulation on major faults could theoretically alter outcomes, current USGS models and paleoseismic evidence indicate such thresholds remain highly improbable within the next 18 months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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