**No outcome at 99% reflects the scientific consensus that a magnitude 10.0+ earthquake is physically impossible.** Earthquake magnitude scales with the length of the rupturing fault and the amount of slip; generating M10 would require a fault spanning thousands of kilometers—roughly encircling much of the planet—which does not exist on Earth. USGS assessments confirm the theoretical upper limit lies near M9.5–9.7, consistent with the instrumentally recorded maximum of 9.5 (1960 Valdivia, Chile). No M9.0+ events have occurred since 2011, and 2026 activity has remained well below M8.0, aligning with historical patterns where such extremes are rare even in high-strain subduction zones. With only a few months until 2027, no plausible tectonic or measurement change could produce an M10 event before resolution. The market-implied odds therefore embed both the established geophysical constraints and the short remaining timeframe, leaving negligible room for reversal absent an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling laws themselves.