Recent U.S. and Emirati strikes on Abu Musa in July and May 2026, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses amid wider Gulf conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have heightened focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto control since the 1971 seizure, using the site for naval and air operations, while the UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels and maintains its territorial claim. No verified change in on-ground administration has occurred despite the military actions and analyst speculation about potential occupation or invasion scenarios. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing hostilities or diplomatic shifts could alter effective control before any market resolution date, weighed against Iran's sustained military presence and the island's strategic role in regional shipping lanes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$88,312 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$88,312 Vol.
8月31日
$81,644 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Emirati strikes on Abu Musa in July and May 2026, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses amid wider Gulf conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have heightened focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto control since the 1971 seizure, using the site for naval and air operations, while the UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels and maintains its territorial claim. No verified change in on-ground administration has occurred despite the military actions and analyst speculation about potential occupation or invasion scenarios. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing hostilities or diplomatic shifts could alter effective control before any market resolution date, weighed against Iran's sustained military presence and the island's strategic role in regional shipping lanes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
音量
$88,312終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Emirati strikes on Abu Musa in July and May 2026, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses amid wider Gulf conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have heightened focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto control since the 1971 seizure, using the site for naval and air operations, while the UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels and maintains its territorial claim. No verified change in on-ground administration has occurred despite the military actions and analyst speculation about potential occupation or invasion scenarios. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing hostilities or diplomatic shifts could alter effective control before any market resolution date, weighed against Iran's sustained military presence and the island's strategic role in regional shipping lanes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$88,312終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Emirati strikes on Abu Musa in July and May 2026, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses amid wider Gulf conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have heightened focus on the island's status. Iran has maintained de facto control since the 1971 seizure, using the site for naval and air operations, while the UAE continues to assert sovereignty through diplomatic channels and maintains its territorial claim. No verified change in on-ground administration has occurred despite the military actions and analyst speculation about potential occupation or invasion scenarios. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing hostilities or diplomatic shifts could alter effective control before any market resolution date, weighed against Iran's sustained military presence and the island's strategic role in regional shipping lanes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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