Incumbent Republican French Hill's dominant position in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a GOP hold, reflecting Trump’s 57% share in the district during the 2024 presidential race and Hill’s prior 59% reelection victory. Following lopsided March 3 primaries where Hill secured 77% against a challenger and Democrat Chris Jones advanced unopposed effectively, recent fundraising reports through mid-April show Hill with $2.66 million cash on hand versus Jones’s $114,000, underscoring resource disparities. No public polling exists yet, but the race awaits November 3 general election amid stable national midterm dynamics barring scandals or waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
13%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,280 Vol.
87%
民主党
$5,016 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill's dominant position in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a GOP hold, reflecting Trump’s 57% share in the district during the 2024 presidential race and Hill’s prior 59% reelection victory. Following lopsided March 3 primaries where Hill secured 77% against a challenger and Democrat Chris Jones advanced unopposed effectively, recent fundraising reports through mid-April show Hill with $2.66 million cash on hand versus Jones’s $114,000, underscoring resource disparities. No public polling exists yet, but the race awaits November 3 general election amid stable national midterm dynamics barring scandals or waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$7,296終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill's dominant position in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a GOP hold, reflecting Trump’s 57% share in the district during the 2024 presidential race and Hill’s prior 59% reelection victory. Following lopsided March 3 primaries where Hill secured 77% against a challenger and Democrat Chris Jones advanced unopposed effectively, recent fundraising reports through mid-April show Hill with $2.66 million cash on hand versus Jones’s $114,000, underscoring resource disparities. No public polling exists yet, but the race awaits November 3 general election amid stable national midterm dynamics barring scandals or waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,296終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill's dominant position in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to an 87% implied probability for a GOP hold, reflecting Trump’s 57% share in the district during the 2024 presidential race and Hill’s prior 59% reelection victory. Following lopsided March 3 primaries where Hill secured 77% against a challenger and Democrat Chris Jones advanced unopposed effectively, recent fundraising reports through mid-April show Hill with $2.66 million cash on hand versus Jones’s $114,000, underscoring resource disparities. No public polling exists yet, but the race awaits November 3 general election amid stable national midterm dynamics barring scandals or waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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