Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
12%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,115 Vol.
87%
民主党
$6,349 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$9,464終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,464終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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