The special primary for California's 14th Congressional District, scheduled for June 16, 2026, follows Rep. Eric Swalwell's decision to seek the governorship, creating an open seat in the heavily Democratic East Bay area. State Sen. Aisha Wahab secured the California Democratic Party endorsement and holds a commanding lead in early vote counts and fundraising, positioning her as the frontrunner to advance under the top-two format. Other Democratic contenders, including former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez and San Leandro Councilmember Victor Aguilar Jr., trail significantly, while Republican candidates remain far behind in a district with strong Democratic registration advantages. The August 18 general election, if required, will hinge on which two candidates emerge from the primary. Trader consensus reflects Wahab's structural and organizational edge ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CA-14 Primary Winners
$5,118 Vol.
Aisha Wahab
99%
Melissa Hernandez
96%
Suzanne Chenault
3%
Matt Ortega
2%
Carin Elam
2%
Wendy Huang
2%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
$5,118 Vol.
Aisha Wahab
99%
Melissa Hernandez
96%
Suzanne Chenault
3%
Matt Ortega
2%
Carin Elam
2%
Wendy Huang
2%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日: May 21, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The special primary for California's 14th Congressional District, scheduled for June 16, 2026, follows Rep. Eric Swalwell's decision to seek the governorship, creating an open seat in the heavily Democratic East Bay area. State Sen. Aisha Wahab secured the California Democratic Party endorsement and holds a commanding lead in early vote counts and fundraising, positioning her as the frontrunner to advance under the top-two format. Other Democratic contenders, including former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez and San Leandro Councilmember Victor Aguilar Jr., trail significantly, while Republican candidates remain far behind in a district with strong Democratic registration advantages. The August 18 general election, if required, will hinge on which two candidates emerge from the primary. Trader consensus reflects Wahab's structural and organizational edge ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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