Skip to main content
icon for カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

icon for カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案

はい

66% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

66% 確率
Polymarket
新規
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make the state's top marginal income tax rates on high earners permanent through Proposition 3, extending the structure first approved in 2012 and extended via Proposition 55 until 2031. The measure would lock in rates from 10.3% to 12.3% for individuals above roughly $360,000-$721,000, directing the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K–12 schools and community colleges. The proposition qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with substantial early support funding, building on repeated voter backing for the existing surcharge while facing opposition tied to concerns over tax permanence, revenue stability, and effects on high-income migration and investment. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for approval.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
音量
$2,224
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide in November 2026 whether to make the state's top marginal income tax rates on high earners permanent through Proposition 3, extending the structure first approved in 2012 and extended via Proposition 55 until 2031. The measure would lock in rates from 10.3% to 12.3% for individuals above roughly $360,000-$721,000, directing the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K–12 schools and community colleges. The proposition qualified for the ballot in June 2026 with substantial early support funding, building on repeated voter backing for the existing surcharge while facing opposition tied to concerns over tax permanence, revenue stability, and effects on high-income migration and investment. This backdrop supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for approval.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
音量
$2,224
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「カリフォルニア高所得者恒久税提案」で73%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、73¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に73%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jul 1, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」の現在のフロントランナーは「カリフォルニア高所得者恒久税提案」で73%であり、市場がこの結果に73%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「カリフォルニア州の高収入の恒久的な課税提案」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。