Trader consensus points to Ohio as the likeliest site of the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margin, reflecting its open seat after term limits, even partisan lean, and recent primary outcomes that produced competitive general-election matchups. Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia follow closely, each featuring open races or vulnerable incumbents in states with mixed partisan fundamentals and histories of tight contests. These dynamics sustain tight probabilities because multiple battlegrounds share similar structural factors—balanced voter bases, candidate recruitment, and limited national tailwinds—while early polling and forecaster toss-up ratings show no decisive separation. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in key regions, candidate debates, or economic data releases could widen margins in one state relative to others before November voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日オハイオ州 18.6%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
2026/11/03
オハイオ州
19%
New Hampshire
9%
Wisconsin
13%
Kansas
12%
Iowa
12%
Texas
12%
Alaska
11%
フロリダ
9%
Georgia
9%
Nevada
7%
ミシガン州
5%
Vermont
4%
Oregon
3%
Minnesota
3%
Maine
2%
コロラド州
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
1%
オハイオ州 18.6%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
2026/11/03
オハイオ州
$423 Vol.
19%
New Hampshire
$272 Vol.
9%
Wisconsin
$970 Vol.
13%
Kansas
$2,109 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,480 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,569 Vol.
12%
Alaska
$207 Vol.
11%
フロリダ
$224 Vol.
9%
Georgia
$297 Vol.
9%
Nevada
$2,034 Vol.
7%
ミシガン州
$329 Vol.
5%
Vermont
$176 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$319 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$214 Vol.
3%
Maine
$355 Vol.
2%
コロラド州
$243 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$194 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$269 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus points to Ohio as the likeliest site of the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margin, reflecting its open seat after term limits, even partisan lean, and recent primary outcomes that produced competitive general-election matchups. Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia follow closely, each featuring open races or vulnerable incumbents in states with mixed partisan fundamentals and histories of tight contests. These dynamics sustain tight probabilities because multiple battlegrounds share similar structural factors—balanced voter bases, candidate recruitment, and limited national tailwinds—while early polling and forecaster toss-up ratings show no decisive separation. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in key regions, candidate debates, or economic data releases could widen margins in one state relative to others before November voting.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$11,682終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus points to Ohio as the likeliest site of the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margin, reflecting its open seat after term limits, even partisan lean, and recent primary outcomes that produced competitive general-election matchups. Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia follow closely, each featuring open races or vulnerable incumbents in states with mixed partisan fundamentals and histories of tight contests. These dynamics sustain tight probabilities because multiple battlegrounds share similar structural factors—balanced voter bases, candidate recruitment, and limited national tailwinds—while early polling and forecaster toss-up ratings show no decisive separation. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in key regions, candidate debates, or economic data releases could widen margins in one state relative to others before November voting.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$11,682終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus points to Ohio as the likeliest site of the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margin, reflecting its open seat after term limits, even partisan lean, and recent primary outcomes that produced competitive general-election matchups. Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia follow closely, each featuring open races or vulnerable incumbents in states with mixed partisan fundamentals and histories of tight contests. These dynamics sustain tight probabilities because multiple battlegrounds share similar structural factors—balanced voter bases, candidate recruitment, and limited national tailwinds—while early polling and forecaster toss-up ratings show no decisive separation. Late-cycle developments such as turnout shifts in key regions, candidate debates, or economic data releases could widen margins in one state relative to others before November voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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