The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Nebraska 88%
Iowa 88%
Colorado 88%
New Mexico 88%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
Nebraska
88%
Iowa
88%
Colorado
88%
New Mexico
88%
Ohio (Special)
88%
New Hampshire
88%
Montana
88%
Minnesota
88%
Michigan
88%
Texas
88%
Alaska
88%
Florida (Special)
88%
North Carolina
88%
Maine
88%
Georgia
88%
Virginia
88%
Nebraska 88%
Iowa 88%
Colorado 88%
New Mexico 88%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
88%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
88%
Colorado
$0 Vol.
88%
New Mexico
$0 Vol.
88%
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
88%
New Hampshire
$0 Vol.
88%
Montana
$0 Vol.
88%
Minnesota
$0 Vol.
88%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
88%
Texas
$0 Vol.
88%
Alaska
$0 Vol.
88%
Florida (Special)
$0 Vol.
88%
North Carolina
$0 Vol.
88%
Maine
$0 Vol.
88%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
88%
Virginia
$0 Vol.
88%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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