Trader consensus identifies Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate races, driven by narrow polling averages, strong candidate recruitment on both sides, and battleground voter dynamics in those states. Competitive primaries have produced matchups where incumbency advantages and regional economic concerns keep margins tight, while Ohio's special election timeline introduces additional volatility through accelerated campaigning and open-seat fundraising patterns. Alaska and Maine follow closely due to independent voter blocs and cross-party appeal among challengers. Developments such as upcoming debates, endorsement shifts, or national economic data releases within the next several weeks could widen gaps by clarifying turnout models or issue salience ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Texas 23%
Iowa 18.8%
Ohio (Special) 14.2%
Alaska 12%
$28,490 Vol.
$28,490 Vol.
2026/11/03
Texas
23%
Iowa
19%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Maine
11%
Michigan
5%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 23%
Iowa 18.8%
Ohio (Special) 14.2%
Alaska 12%
$28,490 Vol.
$28,490 Vol.
2026/11/03
Texas
$1,278 Vol.
23%
Iowa
$2,736 Vol.
19%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
11%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
5%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus identifies Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate races, driven by narrow polling averages, strong candidate recruitment on both sides, and battleground voter dynamics in those states. Competitive primaries have produced matchups where incumbency advantages and regional economic concerns keep margins tight, while Ohio's special election timeline introduces additional volatility through accelerated campaigning and open-seat fundraising patterns. Alaska and Maine follow closely due to independent voter blocs and cross-party appeal among challengers. Developments such as upcoming debates, endorsement shifts, or national economic data releases within the next several weeks could widen gaps by clarifying turnout models or issue salience ahead of the general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
音量
$28,490終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus identifies Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate races, driven by narrow polling averages, strong candidate recruitment on both sides, and battleground voter dynamics in those states. Competitive primaries have produced matchups where incumbency advantages and regional economic concerns keep margins tight, while Ohio's special election timeline introduces additional volatility through accelerated campaigning and open-seat fundraising patterns. Alaska and Maine follow closely due to independent voter blocs and cross-party appeal among challengers. Developments such as upcoming debates, endorsement shifts, or national economic data releases within the next several weeks could widen gaps by clarifying turnout models or issue salience ahead of the general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$28,490終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus identifies Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the closest 2026 Senate races, driven by narrow polling averages, strong candidate recruitment on both sides, and battleground voter dynamics in those states. Competitive primaries have produced matchups where incumbency advantages and regional economic concerns keep margins tight, while Ohio's special election timeline introduces additional volatility through accelerated campaigning and open-seat fundraising patterns. Alaska and Maine follow closely due to independent voter blocs and cross-party appeal among challengers. Developments such as upcoming debates, endorsement shifts, or national economic data releases within the next several weeks could widen gaps by clarifying turnout models or issue salience ahead of the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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