Incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown's decisive win in the May 5 Democratic primary—defeating two challengers in Ohio's reliably blue 11th Congressional District—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the general election on November 3. The district's D+28 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing urban Cleveland, reflects overwhelming Democratic presidential margins and Brown's strong incumbency advantage after redistricting in October 2025. GOP nominee Mike Kirchner, who emerged from a low-profile primary, lacks the name recognition or resources to mount a credible challenge in this safe seat. Upsets would require a major scandal, health issue for Brown, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though such shifts remain improbable given historical base rates for deep-blue districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,220 Vol.
94%
共和党
$2,035 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown's decisive win in the May 5 Democratic primary—defeating two challengers in Ohio's reliably blue 11th Congressional District—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the general election on November 3. The district's D+28 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing urban Cleveland, reflects overwhelming Democratic presidential margins and Brown's strong incumbency advantage after redistricting in October 2025. GOP nominee Mike Kirchner, who emerged from a low-profile primary, lacks the name recognition or resources to mount a credible challenge in this safe seat. Upsets would require a major scandal, health issue for Brown, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though such shifts remain improbable given historical base rates for deep-blue districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$5,255終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown's decisive win in the May 5 Democratic primary—defeating two challengers in Ohio's reliably blue 11th Congressional District—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the general election on November 3. The district's D+28 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing urban Cleveland, reflects overwhelming Democratic presidential margins and Brown's strong incumbency advantage after redistricting in October 2025. GOP nominee Mike Kirchner, who emerged from a low-profile primary, lacks the name recognition or resources to mount a credible challenge in this safe seat. Upsets would require a major scandal, health issue for Brown, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though such shifts remain improbable given historical base rates for deep-blue districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,255終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown's decisive win in the May 5 Democratic primary—defeating two challengers in Ohio's reliably blue 11th Congressional District—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the general election on November 3. The district's D+28 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing urban Cleveland, reflects overwhelming Democratic presidential margins and Brown's strong incumbency advantage after redistricting in October 2025. GOP nominee Mike Kirchner, who emerged from a low-profile primary, lacks the name recognition or resources to mount a credible challenge in this safe seat. Upsets would require a major scandal, health issue for Brown, or extraordinary national Republican wave, though such shifts remain improbable given historical base rates for deep-blue districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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