Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in June 2026 and advancing against Republican Houston Brignano, underscores the district’s entrenched Democratic registration edge of nearly 50 percent compared with about 21 percent Republican in Los Angeles County. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with the market’s 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s consistent election history further reinforce trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such shifts lack supporting indicators in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,993 Vol.
$34,993 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$34,993 Vol.
$34,993 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$6,049 Vol.
95%
共和党
$28,944 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in June 2026 and advancing against Republican Houston Brignano, underscores the district’s entrenched Democratic registration edge of nearly 50 percent compared with about 21 percent Republican in Los Angeles County. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with the market’s 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s consistent election history further reinforce trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such shifts lack supporting indicators in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$34,993終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in June 2026 and advancing against Republican Houston Brignano, underscores the district’s entrenched Democratic registration edge of nearly 50 percent compared with about 21 percent Republican in Los Angeles County. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with the market’s 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s consistent election history further reinforce trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such shifts lack supporting indicators in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,993終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in June 2026 and advancing against Republican Houston Brignano, underscores the district’s entrenched Democratic registration edge of nearly 50 percent compared with about 21 percent Republican in Los Angeles County. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with the market’s 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s consistent election history further reinforce trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such shifts lack supporting indicators in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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