Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal ridings under the first-past-the-post system, with multiple districts such as Gouin and Mercier projected as safe or likely holds in current models. Despite an overall popular vote share near 10 percent in recent polling aggregates, the party's urban concentrations and incumbency in key seats underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability. The election campaign, launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, features QS defending longstanding strongholds amid broader shifts favoring the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp late swings in turnout or preferences eroding these pockets, though seat projections across forecasters assign this low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
95% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
はい
95% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal ridings under the first-past-the-post system, with multiple districts such as Gouin and Mercier projected as safe or likely holds in current models. Despite an overall popular vote share near 10 percent in recent polling aggregates, the party's urban concentrations and incumbency in key seats underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability. The election campaign, launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, features QS defending longstanding strongholds amid broader shifts favoring the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp late swings in turnout or preferences eroding these pockets, though seat projections across forecasters assign this low likelihood.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
音量
$279終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal ridings under the first-past-the-post system, with multiple districts such as Gouin and Mercier projected as safe or likely holds in current models. Despite an overall popular vote share near 10 percent in recent polling aggregates, the party's urban concentrations and incumbency in key seats underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability. The election campaign, launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, features QS defending longstanding strongholds amid broader shifts favoring the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp late swings in turnout or preferences eroding these pockets, though seat projections across forecasters assign this low likelihood.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$279終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETQuébec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal ridings under the first-past-the-post system, with multiple districts such as Gouin and Mercier projected as safe or likely holds in current models. Despite an overall popular vote share near 10 percent in recent polling aggregates, the party's urban concentrations and incumbency in key seats underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability. The election campaign, launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, features QS defending longstanding strongholds amid broader shifts favoring the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp late swings in turnout or preferences eroding these pockets, though seat projections across forecasters assign this low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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