**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a closely contested decision on a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset vote.** Noam, a small religious-nationalist party holding one seat and led by Avi Maoz, has rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own candidate slate in late July, while polling near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at 6–10 seats independently and has explicitly ruled out reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, prioritizing its distinct voter base among Likud and Shas defectors. Netanyahu has urged broader right-wing unity to avoid wasting votes, yet recent talks center on other potential partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. With candidate lists due by September 8, trader odds at 50% reflect uncertainty over whether threshold pressures will outweigh Otzma’s preference for autonomy or past disagreements on candidates and ideology.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/07
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a closely contested decision on a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset vote.** Noam, a small religious-nationalist party holding one seat and led by Avi Maoz, has rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own candidate slate in late July, while polling near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at 6–10 seats independently and has explicitly ruled out reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, prioritizing its distinct voter base among Likud and Shas defectors. Netanyahu has urged broader right-wing unity to avoid wasting votes, yet recent talks center on other potential partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. With candidate lists due by September 8, trader odds at 50% reflect uncertainty over whether threshold pressures will outweigh Otzma’s preference for autonomy or past disagreements on candidates and ideology.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$30終了日
2026/09/07マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a closely contested decision on a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset vote.** Noam, a small religious-nationalist party holding one seat and led by Avi Maoz, has rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own candidate slate in late July, while polling near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at 6–10 seats independently and has explicitly ruled out reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, prioritizing its distinct voter base among Likud and Shas defectors. Netanyahu has urged broader right-wing unity to avoid wasting votes, yet recent talks center on other potential partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. With candidate lists due by September 8, trader odds at 50% reflect uncertainty over whether threshold pressures will outweigh Otzma’s preference for autonomy or past disagreements on candidates and ideology.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
音量
$30終了日
2026/09/07マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a closely contested decision on a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset vote.** Noam, a small religious-nationalist party holding one seat and led by Avi Maoz, has rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own candidate slate in late July, while polling near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at 6–10 seats independently and has explicitly ruled out reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, prioritizing its distinct voter base among Likud and Shas defectors. Netanyahu has urged broader right-wing unity to avoid wasting votes, yet recent talks center on other potential partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. With candidate lists due by September 8, trader odds at 50% reflect uncertainty over whether threshold pressures will outweigh Otzma’s preference for autonomy or past disagreements on candidates and ideology.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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