Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 57.5% to retain Maryland's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Andy Harris's long tenure, the district's consistent Republican lean on the Eastern Shore, and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in safe seats. Democrats hold 42% implied probability amid competitive fundraising—challenger Dan Schwartz raised over $500,000 recently—and a crowded primary field ahead of the June 23 primaries. The most recent catalyst narrowing the odds: reports yesterday of Maryland Democrats, including Senate President Bill Ferguson, advancing plans for a special session to redraw congressional maps into an 8-0 Democratic advantage, potentially postponing primaries and targeting Harris's seat, though legal challenges loom via state courts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
57%
民主党
42%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$5,242 Vol.
57%
民主党
$2,930 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 57.5% to retain Maryland's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Andy Harris's long tenure, the district's consistent Republican lean on the Eastern Shore, and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in safe seats. Democrats hold 42% implied probability amid competitive fundraising—challenger Dan Schwartz raised over $500,000 recently—and a crowded primary field ahead of the June 23 primaries. The most recent catalyst narrowing the odds: reports yesterday of Maryland Democrats, including Senate President Bill Ferguson, advancing plans for a special session to redraw congressional maps into an 8-0 Democratic advantage, potentially postponing primaries and targeting Harris's seat, though legal challenges loom via state courts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$8,172終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 57.5% to retain Maryland's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Andy Harris's long tenure, the district's consistent Republican lean on the Eastern Shore, and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in safe seats. Democrats hold 42% implied probability amid competitive fundraising—challenger Dan Schwartz raised over $500,000 recently—and a crowded primary field ahead of the June 23 primaries. The most recent catalyst narrowing the odds: reports yesterday of Maryland Democrats, including Senate President Bill Ferguson, advancing plans for a special session to redraw congressional maps into an 8-0 Democratic advantage, potentially postponing primaries and targeting Harris's seat, though legal challenges loom via state courts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,172終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 57.5% to retain Maryland's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Andy Harris's long tenure, the district's consistent Republican lean on the Eastern Shore, and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in safe seats. Democrats hold 42% implied probability amid competitive fundraising—challenger Dan Schwartz raised over $500,000 recently—and a crowded primary field ahead of the June 23 primaries. The most recent catalyst narrowing the odds: reports yesterday of Maryland Democrats, including Senate President Bill Ferguson, advancing plans for a special session to redraw congressional maps into an 8-0 Democratic advantage, potentially postponing primaries and targeting Harris's seat, though legal challenges loom via state courts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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