Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democratic Party
$11,733 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$7,888 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$19,621終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,621終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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