Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz secured the nomination in California's June 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Joe Males in the November general election for the U.S. House seat in CA-25. The district's modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent voter registration advantages, combined with Ruiz's established fundraising edge and name recognition from prior terms, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican primary consolidation and the broader midterm environment further reinforce this positioning. A major unforeseen development, such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,825 Vol.
91%
共和党
$670 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz secured the nomination in California's June 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Joe Males in the November general election for the U.S. House seat in CA-25. The district's modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent voter registration advantages, combined with Ruiz's established fundraising edge and name recognition from prior terms, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican primary consolidation and the broader midterm environment further reinforce this positioning. A major unforeseen development, such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$3,495終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz secured the nomination in California's June 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Joe Males in the November general election for the U.S. House seat in CA-25. The district's modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent voter registration advantages, combined with Ruiz's established fundraising edge and name recognition from prior terms, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican primary consolidation and the broader midterm environment further reinforce this positioning. A major unforeseen development, such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,495終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz secured the nomination in California's June 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Joe Males in the November general election for the U.S. House seat in CA-25. The district's modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent voter registration advantages, combined with Ruiz's established fundraising edge and name recognition from prior terms, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican primary consolidation and the broader midterm environment further reinforce this positioning. A major unforeseen development, such as a significant scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問