Dan Koh secured a projected victory in Massachusetts’ 6th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, driving the market’s near-certain pricing. The open seat, vacated by Representative Seth Moulton, sits in a strongly Democratic-leaning area with consistent double-digit partisan advantages in recent presidential elections. Koh emerged from a crowded September primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote and maintained a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million against Republican Micah Jones, an Army veteran and attorney. Early returns showed Koh surpassing 60 percent of the vote. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to official certification delays or recount procedures, though historical patterns in the district indicate low likelihood of reversal.