Recent developments in the large-scale Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in eastern DRC since May 2026 and now exceeding 4,800 confirmed cases with over 2,000 deaths, have elevated cross-border transmission risks. The virus has already reached multiple DRC provinces and prompted an imported case in France, while Uganda's smaller cluster ended in July. Neighboring nations including South Sudan, Rwanda, and others flagged by Africa CDC face heightened exposure due to conflict-driven displacement, porous borders, and strained health infrastructure. Traders see these dynamics—combined with the outbreak's rapid recent doubling in cases—as supporting a 62% implied probability that at least one additional country will report a confirmed case by October 1, though successful containment could still limit further spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日エボラ出血熱： 10月1日までに新しい国が確認されましたか？
エボラ出血熱： 10月1日までに新しい国が確認されましたか？
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent developments in the large-scale Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in eastern DRC since May 2026 and now exceeding 4,800 confirmed cases with over 2,000 deaths, have elevated cross-border transmission risks. The virus has already reached multiple DRC provinces and prompted an imported case in France, while Uganda's smaller cluster ended in July. Neighboring nations including South Sudan, Rwanda, and others flagged by Africa CDC face heightened exposure due to conflict-driven displacement, porous borders, and strained health infrastructure. Traders see these dynamics—combined with the outbreak's rapid recent doubling in cases—as supporting a 62% implied probability that at least one additional country will report a confirmed case by October 1, though successful containment could still limit further spread.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
音量
$20終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent developments in the large-scale Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in eastern DRC since May 2026 and now exceeding 4,800 confirmed cases with over 2,000 deaths, have elevated cross-border transmission risks. The virus has already reached multiple DRC provinces and prompted an imported case in France, while Uganda's smaller cluster ended in July. Neighboring nations including South Sudan, Rwanda, and others flagged by Africa CDC face heightened exposure due to conflict-driven displacement, porous borders, and strained health infrastructure. Traders see these dynamics—combined with the outbreak's rapid recent doubling in cases—as supporting a 62% implied probability that at least one additional country will report a confirmed case by October 1, though successful containment could still limit further spread.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$20終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the large-scale Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in eastern DRC since May 2026 and now exceeding 4,800 confirmed cases with over 2,000 deaths, have elevated cross-border transmission risks. The virus has already reached multiple DRC provinces and prompted an imported case in France, while Uganda's smaller cluster ended in July. Neighboring nations including South Sudan, Rwanda, and others flagged by Africa CDC face heightened exposure due to conflict-driven displacement, porous borders, and strained health infrastructure. Traders see these dynamics—combined with the outbreak's rapid recent doubling in cases—as supporting a 62% implied probability that at least one additional country will report a confirmed case by October 1, though successful containment could still limit further spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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