Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate typical late-summer monsoon conditions with a subtropical ridge promoting highs near 32–33 °C, tempered by scattered showers and high humidity that limit radiative heating. These atmospheric patterns, combined with the urban heat island effect and climatological August baselines around 31–32 °C, underpin the near-even market-implied odds favoring those two thresholds. Afternoon convection and variable steering flows introduce modest uncertainty, keeping 34 °C probabilities lower while rendering extremes below 31 °C or above 35 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine trader consensus before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月16日の香港の最高気温は?
32°C 38%
33°C 37%
34°C 13%
31°C 12%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
12%
32°C
38%
33°C
37%
34°C
13%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
33°C 37%
34°C 13%
31°C 12%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
12%
32°C
38%
33°C
37%
34°C
13%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate typical late-summer monsoon conditions with a subtropical ridge promoting highs near 32–33 °C, tempered by scattered showers and high humidity that limit radiative heating. These atmospheric patterns, combined with the urban heat island effect and climatological August baselines around 31–32 °C, underpin the near-even market-implied odds favoring those two thresholds. Afternoon convection and variable steering flows introduce modest uncertainty, keeping 34 °C probabilities lower while rendering extremes below 31 °C or above 35 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine trader consensus before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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