Elon Musk’s consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 140-199 tweet range for August 14-21, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 20 posts per day during non-event windows. Recent SpaceX earnings commentary, Starship test timelines, and routine Tesla updates have sustained steady engagement without the major controversies or product launches that typically push daily output higher. With no confirmed regulatory shifts or high-profile personal developments in the past week to alter momentum, traders see limited catalysts for deviation from baseline activity, leaving adjacent bins competitive while lower and extreme ranges remain sidelined. The market’s skin-in-the-game consensus highlights how quickly a single breaking announcement could shift the distribution before the period closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日160-179 29%
140-159 22%
180-199 20%
200-219 13%
$667,237 Vol.
$667,237 Vol.
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
3%
120-139
9%
140-159
22%
160-179
29%
180-199
20%
200-219
13%
220-239
5%
240-259
2%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 29%
140-159 22%
180-199 20%
200-219 13%
$667,237 Vol.
$667,237 Vol.
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
3%
120-139
9%
140-159
22%
160-179
29%
180-199
20%
200-219
13%
220-239
5%
240-259
2%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistent high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 140-199 tweet range for August 14-21, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 20 posts per day during non-event windows. Recent SpaceX earnings commentary, Starship test timelines, and routine Tesla updates have sustained steady engagement without the major controversies or product launches that typically push daily output higher. With no confirmed regulatory shifts or high-profile personal developments in the past week to alter momentum, traders see limited catalysts for deviation from baseline activity, leaving adjacent bins competitive while lower and extreme ranges remain sidelined. The market’s skin-in-the-game consensus highlights how quickly a single breaking announcement could shift the distribution before the period closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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