Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X underpins the overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 40-64 tweet range over August 22-24. Traders have anchored on his established daily volume of roughly 15-20 posts, which has held steady amid routine platform activity and absence of breaking developments that typically spike engagement. Historical patterns from similar three-day windows show minimal deviation unless driven by major news cycles or personal announcements. An upset into higher buckets would require an unforeseen controversy or product launch generating sustained reply threads, while sub-40 activity would need an unusually quiet stretch atypical for the account’s pace. Market sentiment reflects this data-backed stability ahead of final count resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40～64 96.7%
65〜89 2.9%
40未満 <1%
90〜114 <1%
$749,866 Vol.
$749,866 Vol.
2026/08/24
40未満
<1%
40～64
97%
65〜89
3%
90〜114
<1%
115～139
<1%
140～164
<1%
165〜189
<1%
190〜214
<1%
215〜239
<1%
240以上
<1%
40～64 96.7%
65〜89 2.9%
40未満 <1%
90〜114 <1%
$749,866 Vol.
$749,866 Vol.
2026/08/24
40未満
$184,986 Vol.
<1%
40～64
$93,363 Vol.
97%
65〜89
$158,809 Vol.
3%
90〜114
$135,627 Vol.
<1%
115～139
$93,229 Vol.
<1%
140～164
$35,070 Vol.
<1%
165〜189
$31,020 Vol.
<1%
190〜214
$14,520 Vol.
<1%
215〜239
$8,044 Vol.
<1%
240以上
$4,452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X underpins the overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 40-64 tweet range over August 22-24. Traders have anchored on his established daily volume of roughly 15-20 posts, which has held steady amid routine platform activity and absence of breaking developments that typically spike engagement. Historical patterns from similar three-day windows show minimal deviation unless driven by major news cycles or personal announcements. An upset into higher buckets would require an unforeseen controversy or product launch generating sustained reply threads, while sub-40 activity would need an unusually quiet stretch atypical for the account’s pace. Market sentiment reflects this data-backed stability ahead of final count resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$749,866終了日
2026/08/24マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X underpins the overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 40-64 tweet range over August 22-24. Traders have anchored on his established daily volume of roughly 15-20 posts, which has held steady amid routine platform activity and absence of breaking developments that typically spike engagement. Historical patterns from similar three-day windows show minimal deviation unless driven by major news cycles or personal announcements. An upset into higher buckets would require an unforeseen controversy or product launch generating sustained reply threads, while sub-40 activity would need an unusually quiet stretch atypical for the account’s pace. Market sentiment reflects this data-backed stability ahead of final count resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$749,866終了日
2026/08/24マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X underpins the overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 40-64 tweet range over August 22-24. Traders have anchored on his established daily volume of roughly 15-20 posts, which has held steady amid routine platform activity and absence of breaking developments that typically spike engagement. Historical patterns from similar three-day windows show minimal deviation unless driven by major news cycles or personal announcements. An upset into higher buckets would require an unforeseen controversy or product launch generating sustained reply threads, while sub-40 activity would need an unusually quiet stretch atypical for the account’s pace. Market sentiment reflects this data-backed stability ahead of final count resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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