Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$170,167 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$170,167 Vol.
8月31日
$161,275 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
音量
$170,167終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$170,167終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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