Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC continue to anchor trader sentiment toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 60% for the July, September, and October meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike) reinforced data dependence amid cooling but still resilient labor market readings and July CPI showing headline near 3.4%. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts while leaving room for “Other” outcomes at 39% if upcoming inflation or employment prints shift expectations before the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Vol.
$711,907 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Vol.
$711,907 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$235,909 Vol.
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,868 Vol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC continue to anchor trader sentiment toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 60% for the July, September, and October meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike) reinforced data dependence amid cooling but still resilient labor market readings and July CPI showing headline near 3.4%. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts while leaving room for “Other” outcomes at 39% if upcoming inflation or employment prints shift expectations before the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
音量
$711,907終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC continue to anchor trader sentiment toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 60% for the July, September, and October meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike) reinforced data dependence amid cooling but still resilient labor market readings and July CPI showing headline near 3.4%. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts while leaving room for “Other” outcomes at 39% if upcoming inflation or employment prints shift expectations before the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$711,907終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC continue to anchor trader sentiment toward Pause–Pause–Pause at 60% for the July, September, and October meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike) reinforced data dependence amid cooling but still resilient labor market readings and July CPI showing headline near 3.4%. Market-implied odds price limited scope for cuts while leaving room for “Other” outcomes at 39% if upcoming inflation or employment prints shift expectations before the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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