**Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution to extend federal funding through mid-December has anchored trader expectations against an October 1 lapse.** On August 8, the Senate approved a stopgap measure funding agencies at current levels past the November midterms, following the House's earlier adoption of a similar CR through early December. Both chambers have prioritized avoiding a shutdown during an election year, consistent with historical patterns where full-year appropriations rarely clear before the fiscal year begins. Negotiations now focus on reconciling minor differences and limited anomalies, with Congress adjourning for recess. This legislative momentum, combined with bipartisan procedural agreements, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that no appropriations lapse will occur on October 1.