**Bipartisan congressional action has sharply reduced the risk of a federal appropriations lapse on October 1, 2026.** The Senate passed a continuing resolution by a 90-6 vote on August 8 to extend current funding levels through December 11, providing additional weeks to complete full-year FY2027 appropriations bills. The House approved a comparable short-term extension earlier and is positioned to reconcile differences and send the measure to the president upon returning from recess. Lawmakers in both chambers have coordinated to prioritize the stopgap measure ahead of the September 30 expiration of current authority, reflecting broad agreement on maintaining operations without disruption. These steps have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% probability assigned to “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Bipartisan congressional action has sharply reduced the risk of a federal appropriations lapse on October 1, 2026.** The Senate passed a continuing resolution by a 90-6 vote on August 8 to extend current funding levels through December 11, providing additional weeks to complete full-year FY2027 appropriations bills. The House approved a comparable short-term extension earlier and is positioned to reconcile differences and send the measure to the president upon returning from recess. Lawmakers in both chambers have coordinated to prioritize the stopgap measure ahead of the September 30 expiration of current authority, reflecting broad agreement on maintaining operations without disruption. These steps have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
音量
$1,353終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Bipartisan congressional action has sharply reduced the risk of a federal appropriations lapse on October 1, 2026.** The Senate passed a continuing resolution by a 90-6 vote on August 8 to extend current funding levels through December 11, providing additional weeks to complete full-year FY2027 appropriations bills. The House approved a comparable short-term extension earlier and is positioned to reconcile differences and send the measure to the president upon returning from recess. Lawmakers in both chambers have coordinated to prioritize the stopgap measure ahead of the September 30 expiration of current authority, reflecting broad agreement on maintaining operations without disruption. These steps have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,353終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan congressional action has sharply reduced the risk of a federal appropriations lapse on October 1, 2026.** The Senate passed a continuing resolution by a 90-6 vote on August 8 to extend current funding levels through December 11, providing additional weeks to complete full-year FY2027 appropriations bills. The House approved a comparable short-term extension earlier and is positioned to reconcile differences and send the measure to the president upon returning from recess. Lawmakers in both chambers have coordinated to prioritize the stopgap measure ahead of the September 30 expiration of current authority, reflecting broad agreement on maintaining operations without disruption. These steps have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% probability assigned to “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問