**Neal Dunn's January 2026 retirement announcement opened the FL-02 House seat—held by Republicans since 2016—yet trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican partisan lean in North Florida's panhandle and historical base rates favoring the party in safe seats.** A crowded Republican primary field, with up to 12 candidates raising nearly $8 million by April, hosted debates like Bay County GOP's in late April, while Democrats face a fragmented lineup splitting votes ahead of the August 18 primary. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the structural advantages sustain high GOP odds despite the lack of incumbency.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
17%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$4,278 Vol.
84%
民主党
$2,632 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Neal Dunn's January 2026 retirement announcement opened the FL-02 House seat—held by Republicans since 2016—yet trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican partisan lean in North Florida's panhandle and historical base rates favoring the party in safe seats.** A crowded Republican primary field, with up to 12 candidates raising nearly $8 million by April, hosted debates like Bay County GOP's in late April, while Democrats face a fragmented lineup splitting votes ahead of the August 18 primary. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the structural advantages sustain high GOP odds despite the lack of incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$6,910終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Neal Dunn's January 2026 retirement announcement opened the FL-02 House seat—held by Republicans since 2016—yet trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican partisan lean in North Florida's panhandle and historical base rates favoring the party in safe seats.** A crowded Republican primary field, with up to 12 candidates raising nearly $8 million by April, hosted debates like Bay County GOP's in late April, while Democrats face a fragmented lineup splitting votes ahead of the August 18 primary. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the structural advantages sustain high GOP odds despite the lack of incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,910終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Neal Dunn's January 2026 retirement announcement opened the FL-02 House seat—held by Republicans since 2016—yet trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican partisan lean in North Florida's panhandle and historical base rates favoring the party in safe seats.** A crowded Republican primary field, with up to 12 candidates raising nearly $8 million by April, hosted debates like Bay County GOP's in late April, while Democrats face a fragmented lineup splitting votes ahead of the August 18 primary. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the structural advantages sustain high GOP odds despite the lack of incumbency.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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