Recent energy price surges from the Middle East conflict have tempered Germany's Q2 2026 growth outlook, offsetting modest fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending. Q1 GDP expanded 0.3% quarter-over-quarter on export rebound, yet weak household consumption and investment signal fragile domestic demand amid rising inflation near 2.6-2.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.1-0.6% ranges, reflecting trader consensus on subdued momentum as the energy shock raises input costs while ECB policy remains cautious. Key swing factors include incoming PMI readings, Bundesbank forecasts, and any further commodity volatility ahead of the July 30 flash estimate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日≤0.0% 52%
1.0-1.2% 49%
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
新規
新規
2026/07/30
≤0.0%
52%
0.1-0.3%
49%
0.4-0.6%
47%
0.7-0.9%
44%
1.0-1.2%
49%
1.3%+
40%
≤0.0% 52%
1.0-1.2% 49%
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
新規
新規
2026/07/30
≤0.0%
$175 Vol.
52%
0.1-0.3%
$151 Vol.
49%
0.4-0.6%
$76 Vol.
47%
0.7-0.9%
$93 Vol.
44%
1.0-1.2%
$57 Vol.
49%
1.3%+
$76 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price surges from the Middle East conflict have tempered Germany's Q2 2026 growth outlook, offsetting modest fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending. Q1 GDP expanded 0.3% quarter-over-quarter on export rebound, yet weak household consumption and investment signal fragile domestic demand amid rising inflation near 2.6-2.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.1-0.6% ranges, reflecting trader consensus on subdued momentum as the energy shock raises input costs while ECB policy remains cautious. Key swing factors include incoming PMI readings, Bundesbank forecasts, and any further commodity volatility ahead of the July 30 flash estimate.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
音量
$627終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price surges from the Middle East conflict have tempered Germany's Q2 2026 growth outlook, offsetting modest fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending. Q1 GDP expanded 0.3% quarter-over-quarter on export rebound, yet weak household consumption and investment signal fragile domestic demand amid rising inflation near 2.6-2.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.1-0.6% ranges, reflecting trader consensus on subdued momentum as the energy shock raises input costs while ECB policy remains cautious. Key swing factors include incoming PMI readings, Bundesbank forecasts, and any further commodity volatility ahead of the July 30 flash estimate.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$627終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price surges from the Middle East conflict have tempered Germany's Q2 2026 growth outlook, offsetting modest fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending. Q1 GDP expanded 0.3% quarter-over-quarter on export rebound, yet weak household consumption and investment signal fragile domestic demand amid rising inflation near 2.6-2.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.1-0.6% ranges, reflecting trader consensus on subdued momentum as the energy shock raises input costs while ECB policy remains cautious. Key swing factors include incoming PMI readings, Bundesbank forecasts, and any further commodity volatility ahead of the July 30 flash estimate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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