Recent energy price surges tied to the Iran conflict have prompted Germany’s government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, shifting trader focus toward subdued quarterly outcomes for Q2. Preliminary Q1 data showed a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion supported by consumption, yet rising inflation near 2.8 percent, softening manufacturing sentiment, and unemployment above three million are weighing on momentum. With market-implied odds clustered tightly across the lowest growth buckets, participants appear to balance the drag from higher oil and gas costs against potential fiscal support and any resilience in private demand. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI print, industrial production releases, and any further policy signals that could alter the narrow probability distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 38%
0.7-0.9% 25%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
≤0.0%
49%
0.1-0.3%
45%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
47%
1.3%+
38%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 38%
0.7-0.9% 25%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
49%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
45%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
47%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price surges tied to the Iran conflict have prompted Germany’s government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, shifting trader focus toward subdued quarterly outcomes for Q2. Preliminary Q1 data showed a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion supported by consumption, yet rising inflation near 2.8 percent, softening manufacturing sentiment, and unemployment above three million are weighing on momentum. With market-implied odds clustered tightly across the lowest growth buckets, participants appear to balance the drag from higher oil and gas costs against potential fiscal support and any resilience in private demand. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI print, industrial production releases, and any further policy signals that could alter the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
音量
$17終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price surges tied to the Iran conflict have prompted Germany’s government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, shifting trader focus toward subdued quarterly outcomes for Q2. Preliminary Q1 data showed a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion supported by consumption, yet rising inflation near 2.8 percent, softening manufacturing sentiment, and unemployment above three million are weighing on momentum. With market-implied odds clustered tightly across the lowest growth buckets, participants appear to balance the drag from higher oil and gas costs against potential fiscal support and any resilience in private demand. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI print, industrial production releases, and any further policy signals that could alter the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$17終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price surges tied to the Iran conflict have prompted Germany’s government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, shifting trader focus toward subdued quarterly outcomes for Q2. Preliminary Q1 data showed a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion supported by consumption, yet rising inflation near 2.8 percent, softening manufacturing sentiment, and unemployment above three million are weighing on momentum. With market-implied odds clustered tightly across the lowest growth buckets, participants appear to balance the drag from higher oil and gas costs against potential fiscal support and any resilience in private demand. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI print, industrial production releases, and any further policy signals that could alter the narrow probability distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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