Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$50,409 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$50,409 Vol.
8月31日
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
音量
$50,409終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$50,409終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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