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icon for ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

icon for ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ 8.0%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ 4.0%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ 2.7%

オノリオ・アウグスト・ロペス 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,326 Vol.

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ 8.0%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ 4.0%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ 2.7%

オノリオ・アウグスト・ロペス 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,326 Vol.

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ

$58,213 Vol.

21%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ

$90,965 Vol.

10%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ

$22,291 Vol.

3%

オノリオ・アウグスト・ロペス

$18,792 Vol.

2%

ジョアン・デ・デウス・メンデス

$17,879 Vol.

2%

シガ・バティスタ

$25,661 Vol.

2%

バシロ・ジャ

$14,548 Vol.

2%

ガブリエル・フェルナンド・インディ

$19,458 Vol.

2%

マリオ・ダ・シルヴァ・ジュニオール

$18,350 Vol.

2%

ジョアン・ベルナルド・ヴィエイラ

$16,799 Vol.

2%

ママドゥ・イアイア・ジャロ

$19,952 Vol.

1%

エルクラーノ・アルマンド・ベキンサ

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The fragmented probabilities in this December 2026 presidential election reflect deep uncertainty following the November 2025 military coup that annulled the prior vote and installed a transitional government under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. The September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent amid a PAIGC boycott, expands presidential authority over cabinet appointments and parliament while imposing new candidate residency and party-membership requirements that reshape eligibility. Fernando Dias da Costa holds the highest implied probability due to his 2025 opposition backing and claimed victory, yet the field remains wide open with no dominant coalition or polling consensus. Key differentiators include party alliances, prior executive experience, and positioning relative to the transitional authorities, while support consolidation will hinge on endorsements, campaign resources, and any military signals ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
音量
$339,326
終了日
2025/11/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The fragmented probabilities in this December 2026 presidential election reflect deep uncertainty following the November 2025 military coup that annulled the prior vote and installed a transitional government under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. The September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent amid a PAIGC boycott, expands presidential authority over cabinet appointments and parliament while imposing new candidate residency and party-membership requirements that reshape eligibility. Fernando Dias da Costa holds the highest implied probability due to his 2025 opposition backing and claimed victory, yet the field remains wide open with no dominant coalition or polling consensus. Key differentiators include party alliances, prior executive experience, and positioning relative to the transitional authorities, while support consolidation will hinge on endorsements, campaign resources, and any military signals ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
音量
$339,326
終了日
2025/11/23
マーケット開始日
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

関連

icon for プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」は、2025年ギニアビサウ国民議会選挙で最多議席を獲得しますか？

プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」は、2025年ギニアビサウ国民議会選挙で最多議席を獲得しますか？

15%
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icon for ジョゼ・マリア・ネヴェスはカーボベルデ大統領選挙に勝つでしょうか？

ジョゼ・マリア・ネヴェスはカーボベルデ大統領選挙に勝つでしょうか？

79%
はい
icon for アダマ・バロウは2026年のガンビア大統領選挙で勝利しますか？

アダマ・バロウは2026年のガンビア大統領選挙で勝利しますか？

72%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」はPolymarket上の12個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ」で21%、次いで「ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ」が10%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、21¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に21%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」は$339.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 6, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」で取引するには、このページに記載されている12個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」の現在のフロントランナーは「フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ」で21%であり、市場がこの結果に21%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ」で10%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。