Hong Kong Observatory data confirm a maximum temperature of 34°C on August 12, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Official forecasts issued that day projected a daily range of 29–34°C under persistent hot, humid summer conditions typical of the region, with no indications of exceeding the threshold at the reference station. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, where average highs hover near 32°C but can reach the mid-30s amid stable high-pressure patterns. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as localized convective cooling, measurement revisions at the Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters, or rapid synoptic shifts, remained unlikely given the consistent model guidance and lack of tropical cyclone influence following Typhoon Dolphin's earlier passage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日の香港の最高気温は?
34℃ 100.0%
28°C以下 <1%
29℃ <1%
30°C <1%
$212,593 Vol.
$212,593 Vol.
28°C以下
<1%
29℃
<1%
30°C
<1%
31℃
<1%
32℃
<1%
33℃
<1%
34℃
100%
35℃
<1%
36°C
<1%
37℃
<1%
38°C以上
<1%
34℃ 100.0%
28°C以下 <1%
29℃ <1%
30°C <1%
$212,593 Vol.
$212,593 Vol.
28°C以下
<1%
29℃
<1%
30°C
<1%
31℃
<1%
32℃
<1%
33℃
<1%
34℃
100%
35℃
<1%
36°C
<1%
37℃
<1%
38°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory data confirm a maximum temperature of 34°C on August 12, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Official forecasts issued that day projected a daily range of 29–34°C under persistent hot, humid summer conditions typical of the region, with no indications of exceeding the threshold at the reference station. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, where average highs hover near 32°C but can reach the mid-30s amid stable high-pressure patterns. Scenarios that could have altered the result, such as localized convective cooling, measurement revisions at the Tsim Sha Tsui headquarters, or rapid synoptic shifts, remained unlikely given the consistent model guidance and lack of tropical cyclone influence following Typhoon Dolphin's earlier passage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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