**Market-implied odds favoring 41°C or higher (57.5%)** stem primarily from Jeddah’s extreme summer climatology and the National Center for Meteorology’s seasonal outlook projecting temperatures 1–1.6°C above normal across the Makkah region through August 2026. In this hot, arid coastal environment, strong solar insolation under persistent high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light Red Sea breezes typically drive daily maxima into the low-to-mid 40s°C, with recent long-range guidance from multiple sources consistently showing 43–45°C peaks for mid-August. Shorter-range model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns reinforce the elevated heat risk, while the narrow probability mass on lower bins reflects the low likelihood of significant cooling from atypical moisture or wind shifts before the 13th. Traders are thus pricing the strong scientific baseline plus the confirmed above-average anomaly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月13日のジェッダの最高気温は？
8月13日のジェッダの最高気温は？
41°C以上 57%
40℃ 19%
39°C 11%
38°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/08/13
31℃以下
<1%
32℃
<1%
33℃
<1%
34℃
<1%
35°C
<1%
36℃
1%
37℃
4%
38°C
7%
39°C
11%
40℃
19%
41°C以上
57%
41°C以上 57%
40℃ 19%
39°C 11%
38°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/08/13
31℃以下
$562 Vol.
<1%
32℃
$562 Vol.
<1%
33℃
$552 Vol.
<1%
34℃
$552 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
36℃
$999 Vol.
1%
37℃
$465 Vol.
4%
38°C
$84 Vol.
7%
39°C
$423 Vol.
11%
40℃
$655 Vol.
19%
41°C以上
$410 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favoring 41°C or higher (57.5%)** stem primarily from Jeddah’s extreme summer climatology and the National Center for Meteorology’s seasonal outlook projecting temperatures 1–1.6°C above normal across the Makkah region through August 2026. In this hot, arid coastal environment, strong solar insolation under persistent high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light Red Sea breezes typically drive daily maxima into the low-to-mid 40s°C, with recent long-range guidance from multiple sources consistently showing 43–45°C peaks for mid-August. Shorter-range model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns reinforce the elevated heat risk, while the narrow probability mass on lower bins reflects the low likelihood of significant cooling from atypical moisture or wind shifts before the 13th. Traders are thus pricing the strong scientific baseline plus the confirmed above-average anomaly.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
音量
$5,291終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favoring 41°C or higher (57.5%)** stem primarily from Jeddah’s extreme summer climatology and the National Center for Meteorology’s seasonal outlook projecting temperatures 1–1.6°C above normal across the Makkah region through August 2026. In this hot, arid coastal environment, strong solar insolation under persistent high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light Red Sea breezes typically drive daily maxima into the low-to-mid 40s°C, with recent long-range guidance from multiple sources consistently showing 43–45°C peaks for mid-August. Shorter-range model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns reinforce the elevated heat risk, while the narrow probability mass on lower bins reflects the low likelihood of significant cooling from atypical moisture or wind shifts before the 13th. Traders are thus pricing the strong scientific baseline plus the confirmed above-average anomaly.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$5,291終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ET**Market-implied odds favoring 41°C or higher (57.5%)** stem primarily from Jeddah’s extreme summer climatology and the National Center for Meteorology’s seasonal outlook projecting temperatures 1–1.6°C above normal across the Makkah region through August 2026. In this hot, arid coastal environment, strong solar insolation under persistent high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light Red Sea breezes typically drive daily maxima into the low-to-mid 40s°C, with recent long-range guidance from multiple sources consistently showing 43–45°C peaks for mid-August. Shorter-range model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns reinforce the elevated heat risk, while the narrow probability mass on lower bins reflects the low likelihood of significant cooling from atypical moisture or wind shifts before the 13th. Traders are thus pricing the strong scientific baseline plus the confirmed above-average anomaly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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