Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月13日のマドリードの最高気温は?
39°C 50%
40°C 35%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
8%
39°C
50%
40°C
35%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44℃
<1%
45℃以上
<1%
39°C 50%
40°C 35%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
8%
39°C
50%
40°C
35%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44℃
<1%
45℃以上
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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