Recent Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus forecasts for August 11 indicate overnight lows near 28–29 °C under typical summer monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and minimal cloud cover overnight, positioning 29 °C as the modal outcome with 53.5 % market-implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperature guidance for August–October reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures around 29 °C limit radiative cooling. Model spreads and potential for localized showers introduce modest uncertainty favoring 28 °C or 30 °C at lower probabilities; traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs and historical August minimum distributions heavily ahead of the daily minimum observation at the Hong Kong Observatory reference station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月11日の香港の最低気温は?
29°C 53%
30°C 29%
28°C 21%
27℃ 5%
$12,360 Vol.
$12,360 Vol.
24℃以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
53%
30°C
29%
31℃
<1%
32℃
<1%
33℃
<1%
34℃以上
<1%
29°C 53%
30°C 29%
28°C 21%
27℃ 5%
$12,360 Vol.
$12,360 Vol.
24℃以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
53%
30°C
29%
31℃
<1%
32℃
<1%
33℃
<1%
34℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus forecasts for August 11 indicate overnight lows near 28–29 °C under typical summer monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and minimal cloud cover overnight, positioning 29 °C as the modal outcome with 53.5 % market-implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperature guidance for August–October reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures around 29 °C limit radiative cooling. Model spreads and potential for localized showers introduce modest uncertainty favoring 28 °C or 30 °C at lower probabilities; traders are weighting the latest deterministic runs and historical August minimum distributions heavily ahead of the daily minimum observation at the Hong Kong Observatory reference station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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