Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble guidance, combined with high pressure over northwest Europe and modest Atlantic flow, positions 21–22°C as the most probable maximum temperature range for London on August 21. These conditions favor partly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal late-August climatology of 21–22°C rather than allowing stronger warming. Updated model runs show little support for 24°C or higher thresholds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 20–22°C outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月21日のロンドンの最高気温は?
21°C 37%
22°C 24%
20°C 21%
23°C 8%
17°C or below
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
21%
21°C
37%
22°C
24%
23°C
8%
24°C
4%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 37%
22°C 24%
20°C 21%
23°C 8%
17°C or below
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
21%
21°C
37%
22°C
24%
23°C
8%
24°C
4%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble guidance, combined with high pressure over northwest Europe and modest Atlantic flow, positions 21–22°C as the most probable maximum temperature range for London on August 21. These conditions favor partly cloudy skies with limited daytime heating, keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal late-August climatology of 21–22°C rather than allowing stronger warming. Updated model runs show little support for 24°C or higher thresholds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 20–22°C outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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