Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a 30–32°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 19 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and 30–60% precipitation probability, limiting peak solar heating compared to mid-August climatology. These conditions, combined with typical 75–85% humidity and urban heat-island effects from concrete surfaces, support the market's tight clustering around 30–32°C outcomes. Model spread arises from variable steering patterns and timing of any frontal passage, while historical analogs show similar setups often capping readings near seasonal averages of 31°C; updated JMA guidance and refined short-range model runs ahead of the date remain key variables that could shift the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月19日の東京の最高気温は?
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 25%
29°C 11%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
11%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
25%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 25%
29°C 11%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
11%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
25%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a 30–32°C daily maximum in Tokyo on August 19 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and 30–60% precipitation probability, limiting peak solar heating compared to mid-August climatology. These conditions, combined with typical 75–85% humidity and urban heat-island effects from concrete surfaces, support the market's tight clustering around 30–32°C outcomes. Model spread arises from variable steering patterns and timing of any frontal passage, while historical analogs show similar setups often capping readings near seasonal averages of 31°C; updated JMA guidance and refined short-range model runs ahead of the date remain key variables that could shift the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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