Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月16日のミラノの最高気温は?
32°C 40%
33°C 35%
34°C 12%
31°C 8.6%
$10,016 Vol.
$10,016 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
9%
32°C
40%
33°C
35%
34°C
12%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 40%
33°C 35%
34°C 12%
31°C 8.6%
$10,016 Vol.
$10,016 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
9%
32°C
40%
33°C
35%
34°C
12%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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