Recent model runs from Russian and European meteorological centers indicate a high-pressure ridge over the East European Plain will support strong daytime insolation and light winds across Moscow on May 18, favoring a daily maximum near 28–29 °C at the VDNKh reference station. Ensemble spreads remain modest because boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover are the dominant uncertainties; a modest increase in low-level humidity or thin cirrus could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower, while drier northerly flow would allow readings to reach 30 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 28–29 °C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to more extreme departures from the current forecast consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のモスクワの最高気温は?
29°C 33%
28°C 27%
30°C 19%
27°C 12%
$13,031 Vol.
$13,031 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
12%
28°C
27%
29°C
33%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 27%
30°C 19%
27°C 12%
$13,031 Vol.
$13,031 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
12%
28°C
27%
29°C
33%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent model runs from Russian and European meteorological centers indicate a high-pressure ridge over the East European Plain will support strong daytime insolation and light winds across Moscow on May 18, favoring a daily maximum near 28–29 °C at the VDNKh reference station. Ensemble spreads remain modest because boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover are the dominant uncertainties; a modest increase in low-level humidity or thin cirrus could cap the peak 1–2 °C lower, while drier northerly flow would allow readings to reach 30 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 28–29 °C outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to more extreme departures from the current forecast consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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