Latest ensemble forecasts from major centers such as ECMWF and GFS point to a Moscow high of 27–29 °C on May 18 under southerly flow of milder air and building high pressure that favors clear to partly cloudy skies. This narrow range produces nearly even trader shares across the three leading outcomes, as small differences in model depictions of afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speed can shift the exact maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical mid-May climatology shows average highs near 18–20 °C, so the current setup represents a notable warm anomaly that keeps probabilities tightly clustered around these values until the final 24-hour model runs arrive.