Current ensemble forecasts for Taipei on May 18 point to a daytime maximum near 31–33 °C under typical early-summer monsoon conditions, with the Central Weather Administration’s models showing only modest spread from variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and localized urban heat-island amplification across the city basin. These small meteorological differences account for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 32 °C, 31 °C, and 33 °C. Official hourly observations at the Taipei station will set the exact peak, while any late-day convective development or strengthened northeasterly flow could nudge the final value lower or higher within the narrow uncertainty range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日の台北の最高気温は?
32°C 34%
31°C 24%
33°C 23%
34°C or higher 15.2%
$16,567 Vol.
$16,567 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
9%
31°C
24%
32°C
34%
33°C
23%
34°C or higher
15%
32°C 34%
31°C 24%
33°C 23%
34°C or higher 15.2%
$16,567 Vol.
$16,567 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
9%
31°C
24%
32°C
34%
33°C
23%
34°C or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current ensemble forecasts for Taipei on May 18 point to a daytime maximum near 31–33 °C under typical early-summer monsoon conditions, with the Central Weather Administration’s models showing only modest spread from variations in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and localized urban heat-island amplification across the city basin. These small meteorological differences account for the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 32 °C, 31 °C, and 33 °C. Official hourly observations at the Taipei station will set the exact peak, while any late-day convective development or strengthened northeasterly flow could nudge the final value lower or higher within the narrow uncertainty range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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