Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日の武漢の最高気温は？
8月4日の武漢の最高気温は？
37°C 33%
38℃ 27%
36℃ 18%
35℃ 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
32℃以下
1%
33℃
2%
34°C
10%
35℃
11%
36℃
18%
37°C
33%
38℃
27%
39℃
6%
40℃
3%
41°C
1%
42℃以上
2%
37°C 33%
38℃ 27%
36℃ 18%
35℃ 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
32℃以下
$15 Vol.
1%
33℃
$11 Vol.
2%
34°C
$0 Vol.
10%
35℃
$0 Vol.
11%
36℃
$0 Vol.
18%
37°C
$0 Vol.
33%
38℃
$21 Vol.
27%
39℃
$0 Vol.
6%
40℃
$0 Vol.
3%
41°C
$31 Vol.
1%
42℃以上
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
音量
$93終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$93終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETEnsemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問