Global seismicity records from the USGS indicate an average of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide each week, aligning with the market’s strong 91.5% consensus for exactly one event during May 11–17. A preliminary 6.7 quake struck offshore Japan on May 15 near the Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zone, matching typical background tectonic strain release without triggering aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No comparable activity was recorded in high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America during the period. Final USGS catalog verification could shift the tally if magnitudes are revised or an unreported event surfaces, though current observational data make those outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 92%
2 9%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$57,290 Vol.
$57,290 Vol.
0
<1%
1
92%
2
9%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 92%
2 9%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$57,290 Vol.
$57,290 Vol.
0
<1%
1
92%
2
9%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity records from the USGS indicate an average of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide each week, aligning with the market’s strong 91.5% consensus for exactly one event during May 11–17. A preliminary 6.7 quake struck offshore Japan on May 15 near the Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zone, matching typical background tectonic strain release without triggering aftershock sequences or regional clusters. No comparable activity was recorded in high-frequency zones such as Indonesia, the Aleutians, or South America during the period. Final USGS catalog verification could shift the tally if magnitudes are revised or an unreported event surfaces, though current observational data make those outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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