Recent early-May outbreaks, including a notable May 6-7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have supported trader sentiment for totals near or slightly below the 265-tornado historical average. Closely matched odds for the sub-230 bins reflect ongoing uncertainty in atmospheric setup, particularly the northward shift of the jet stream, variable low-level moisture, and wind shear patterns that determine supercell formation across the Great Plains and Midwest. With May only half complete, traders are weighing whether remaining instability and steering patterns will sustain or suppress activity through the peak climatological window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 63%
200–229 40%
260–289 39%
230–259 36%
新規
新規
2026/06/08
<200
46%
200–229
40%
230–259
36%
260–289
39%
290–319
15%
320–349
11%
350–379
11%
380–410
11%
410+
10%
<200 63%
200–229 40%
260–289 39%
230–259 36%
新規
新規
2026/06/08
<200
$215 Vol.
46%
200–229
$0 Vol.
40%
230–259
$0 Vol.
36%
260–289
$0 Vol.
39%
290–319
$0 Vol.
15%
320–349
$10 Vol.
11%
350–379
$10 Vol.
11%
380–410
$0 Vol.
11%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent early-May outbreaks, including a notable May 6-7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have supported trader sentiment for totals near or slightly below the 265-tornado historical average. Closely matched odds for the sub-230 bins reflect ongoing uncertainty in atmospheric setup, particularly the northward shift of the jet stream, variable low-level moisture, and wind shear patterns that determine supercell formation across the Great Plains and Midwest. With May only half complete, traders are weighing whether remaining instability and steering patterns will sustain or suppress activity through the peak climatological window.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
音量
$235終了日
2026/06/08マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent early-May outbreaks, including a notable May 6-7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have supported trader sentiment for totals near or slightly below the 265-tornado historical average. Closely matched odds for the sub-230 bins reflect ongoing uncertainty in atmospheric setup, particularly the northward shift of the jet stream, variable low-level moisture, and wind shear patterns that determine supercell formation across the Great Plains and Midwest. With May only half complete, traders are weighing whether remaining instability and steering patterns will sustain or suppress activity through the peak climatological window.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$235終了日
2026/06/08マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent early-May outbreaks, including a notable May 6-7 event across the Southeast that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have supported trader sentiment for totals near or slightly below the 265-tornado historical average. Closely matched odds for the sub-230 bins reflect ongoing uncertainty in atmospheric setup, particularly the northward shift of the jet stream, variable low-level moisture, and wind shear patterns that determine supercell formation across the Great Plains and Midwest. With May only half complete, traders are weighing whether remaining instability and steering patterns will sustain or suppress activity through the peak climatological window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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