Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40万〜42万5000台 27.0%
37万5000〜40万 24%
425k〜450k 22%
45万〜47万5千 14.0%
$43,317 Vol.
$43,317 Vol.
2026/06/30
30万台未満
3%
30万～32万5千
1%
32万5千～35万
4%
35万～37万5千
11%
37万5000〜40万
24%
40万〜42万5000台
27%
425k〜450k
22%
45万〜47万5千
12%
47.5万台以上
10%
40万〜42万5000台 27.0%
37万5000〜40万 24%
425k〜450k 22%
45万〜47万5千 14.0%
$43,317 Vol.
$43,317 Vol.
2026/06/30
30万台未満
$5,342 Vol.
3%
30万～32万5千
$3,167 Vol.
1%
32万5千～35万
$3,301 Vol.
4%
35万～37万5千
$7,627 Vol.
11%
37万5000〜40万
$4,127 Vol.
24%
40万〜42万5000台
$8,391 Vol.
27%
425k〜450k
$4,472 Vol.
22%
45万〜47万5千
$3,336 Vol.
12%
47.5万台以上
$3,553 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
音量
$43,317終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
音量
$43,317終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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