Ongoing US-brokered talks in Washington have produced repeated ceasefire extensions, including a 45-day prolongation announced on May 15, yet delivered no movement toward diplomatic normalization. Israel continues to condition any agreement on Hezbollah’s complete disarmament and restoration of Lebanese state authority along the border, while Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have emphasized border security and explicitly stated the country remains far from recognition or economic ties. Constitutional prohibitions on contact with Israel, Hezbollah’s rejection of the talks, and persistent cross-border violations by both sides have reinforced structural barriers. These dynamics explain traders’ 78 percent consensus that formal relations will not be established before the end of 2026.