Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran continues to drive trader consensus against any embassy reopening in 2026. Direct strikes, including the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent escalations through September, have eliminated diplomatic channels that were already severed since 1979. Iran’s support for proxy forces and threats against Israeli diplomatic sites reinforce the impasse. Speculation around opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi focuses on hypothetical post-regime scenarios rather than current policy. While a sudden ceasefire or leadership shift could theoretically alter timelines before year-end, active hostilities and institutional hostility create significant barriers to normalization within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$194,382 Vol.
$194,382 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$194,382 Vol.
$194,382 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran continues to drive trader consensus against any embassy reopening in 2026. Direct strikes, including the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent escalations through September, have eliminated diplomatic channels that were already severed since 1979. Iran’s support for proxy forces and threats against Israeli diplomatic sites reinforce the impasse. Speculation around opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi focuses on hypothetical post-regime scenarios rather than current policy. While a sudden ceasefire or leadership shift could theoretically alter timelines before year-end, active hostilities and institutional hostility create significant barriers to normalization within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
音量
$194,382終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran continues to drive trader consensus against any embassy reopening in 2026. Direct strikes, including the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent escalations through September, have eliminated diplomatic channels that were already severed since 1979. Iran’s support for proxy forces and threats against Israeli diplomatic sites reinforce the impasse. Speculation around opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi focuses on hypothetical post-regime scenarios rather than current policy. While a sudden ceasefire or leadership shift could theoretically alter timelines before year-end, active hostilities and institutional hostility create significant barriers to normalization within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$194,382終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran continues to drive trader consensus against any embassy reopening in 2026. Direct strikes, including the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent escalations through September, have eliminated diplomatic channels that were already severed since 1979. Iran’s support for proxy forces and threats against Israeli diplomatic sites reinforce the impasse. Speculation around opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi focuses on hypothetical post-regime scenarios rather than current policy. While a sudden ceasefire or leadership shift could theoretically alter timelines before year-end, active hostilities and institutional hostility create significant barriers to normalization within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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