**Ongoing implementation challenges in the June 2026 US-brokered trilateral framework agreement continue to anchor trader expectations against full normalization before 2027.** The accord established pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and a process toward Hezbollah disarmament, alongside mutual recognition of sovereignty, but Lebanese officials explicitly described it as a mechanism to end hostilities rather than a peace treaty or normalization step. Hezbollah has rejected the deal outright, refusing disarmament and maintaining its weapons. Israeli operations in southern Lebanon have persisted into September, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has stated that a security arrangement could serve only as a potential prelude to peace, with direct normalization off the table for now. Delayed talks and the requirement for verified progress on core security issues before any broader diplomatic breakthrough sustain the strong market consensus favoring “No.”