**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) near 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share ahead of the October 27 election.** Internal restructuring of the Ashkenazi Haredi list—including leadership changes, the departure of veteran figures such as Moshe Gafni, and a last-minute reorganization into three distinct factions (Degel HaTorah, Agudat Yisrael, and Chomas Toras Yisrael)—has dominated recent coverage and may influence turnout and cohesion among core voters. Persistent coalition disputes over legislation to exempt full-time yeshiva students from military service have kept the party’s priorities centered on securing favorable conscription terms and funding, while new competing Haredi lists test traditional support. These factors have kept trader-implied probabilities concentrated on the 5–7% range reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6〜7％ 51%
5〜6% 39%
7〜8％ 7%
5%未満 7%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
5%未満
7%
5〜6%
36%
6〜7％
51%
7〜8％
7%
8%以上
3%
6〜7％ 51%
5〜6% 39%
7〜8％ 7%
5%未満 7%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
5%未満
$186 Vol.
7%
5〜6%
$204 Vol.
36%
6〜7％
$160 Vol.
51%
7〜8％
$174 Vol.
7%
8%以上
$290 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) near 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share ahead of the October 27 election.** Internal restructuring of the Ashkenazi Haredi list—including leadership changes, the departure of veteran figures such as Moshe Gafni, and a last-minute reorganization into three distinct factions (Degel HaTorah, Agudat Yisrael, and Chomas Toras Yisrael)—has dominated recent coverage and may influence turnout and cohesion among core voters. Persistent coalition disputes over legislation to exempt full-time yeshiva students from military service have kept the party’s priorities centered on securing favorable conscription terms and funding, while new competing Haredi lists test traditional support. These factors have kept trader-implied probabilities concentrated on the 5–7% range reflected in current market pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
音量
$1,015終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) near 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share ahead of the October 27 election.** Internal restructuring of the Ashkenazi Haredi list—including leadership changes, the departure of veteran figures such as Moshe Gafni, and a last-minute reorganization into three distinct factions (Degel HaTorah, Agudat Yisrael, and Chomas Toras Yisrael)—has dominated recent coverage and may influence turnout and cohesion among core voters. Persistent coalition disputes over legislation to exempt full-time yeshiva students from military service have kept the party’s priorities centered on securing favorable conscription terms and funding, while new competing Haredi lists test traditional support. These factors have kept trader-implied probabilities concentrated on the 5–7% range reflected in current market pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
音量
$1,015終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) near 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share ahead of the October 27 election.** Internal restructuring of the Ashkenazi Haredi list—including leadership changes, the departure of veteran figures such as Moshe Gafni, and a last-minute reorganization into three distinct factions (Degel HaTorah, Agudat Yisrael, and Chomas Toras Yisrael)—has dominated recent coverage and may influence turnout and cohesion among core voters. Persistent coalition disputes over legislation to exempt full-time yeshiva students from military service have kept the party’s priorities centered on securing favorable conscription terms and funding, while new competing Haredi lists test traditional support. These factors have kept trader-implied probabilities concentrated on the 5–7% range reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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